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What is Positive EV Betting?

Positive Expected Value (EV) betting is a strategy that identifies bets where the probability of winning is higher than what the bookmaker's odds suggest.

Understanding Expected Value

Expected Value is a mathematical concept that helps determine whether a bet is profitable in the long run. A positive EV bet means you have an edge over the bookmaker.

Example

Let's say a bookmaker offers odds of 2.00 for a team to win. If you calculate that the team has a 55% chance of winning:

  • Bookmaker odds: 2.00 (implied probability: 50%)
  • Your calculated probability: 55%
  • This creates a positive EV opportunity

Top-Down EV Betting

Top-down EV betting is a more sophisticated approach that compares odds across multiple bookmakers to find the true market probability.

How It Works:

  1. Find the Best Odds:
    • Bookmaker A: Team 1 @ 2.20
    • Bookmaker B: Team 1 @ 2.10
    • Bookmaker C: Team 1 @ 2.00

    Bookmaker A offers the best odds (2.20)

  2. Calculate Market Probability:
    • Convert all odds to probabilities:
    • 2.20 → 45.45%
    • 2.10 → 47.62%
    • 2.00 → 50.00%
    • Average probability: 47.69%

    This average represents the market's true probability

  3. Calculate EV:
    • Best odds: 2.20
    • Market probability: 47.69%
    • EV = (2.20 × 47.69%) - 1 = 4.92%

    A positive EV of 4.92% means you have a mathematical edge

Top-down EV betting is more accurate than single-bookmaker analysis because it uses the wisdom of the crowd to determine true probabilities. The more bookmakers you compare, the more accurate your market probability becomes.

Benefits of Positive EV Betting

  • Long-term profitability
  • Mathematical edge over bookmakers
  • Can be combined with other strategies
  • Works across all esports markets

Getting Started

To start positive EV betting, you need:

  • Understanding of probability and odds
  • Access to multiple bookmakers
  • Tools to calculate true probabilities
  • Discipline to follow the strategy

Ready to Start Positive EV Betting?

Oddsentry provides advanced tools to identify positive EV opportunities and calculate true probabilities across multiple esports markets.

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