What is Positive EV Betting? Complete Guide 2024
Master positive expected value betting and build long-term wealth through mathematical edge betting strategies.
What is Positive EV Betting?
Positive Expected Value (EV) betting is a strategy that identifies bets where the mathematical probability of winning is greater than what the bookmaker's odds suggest. Unlike arbitrage betting, EV betting doesn't guarantee profit on individual bets, but it provides a mathematical edge that leads to long-term profitability.
The key principle is simple: if you consistently place bets with positive expected value, you will profit over time, even if you lose individual bets.
Understanding Expected Value
EV Formula
EV = (Probability of Winning × Potential Profit) - (Probability of Losing × Amount Bet)If EV > 0, the bet has positive expected value and should be profitable long-term.
Example:
Bet: $100 on Team A at 2.50 odds
Your assessment: Team A has 45% chance to win
EV = (0.45 × $150) - (0.55 × $100) = $67.50 - $55 = $12.50
Positive EV: +$12.50
How to Find Positive EV Bets
Line Shopping
Compare odds across multiple bookmakers to find the best prices for your bets.
- • Use odds comparison tools
- • Check multiple sportsbooks
- • Look for line movements
Market Inefficiencies
Find markets where bookmakers may have mispriced the odds.
- • Less popular sports/markets
- • Live betting opportunities
- • Prop bets and specials
Statistical Analysis
Use data and statistics to assess true probabilities.
- • Historical performance data
- • Advanced metrics and models
- • Situational factors
Promotional Offers
Take advantage of bookmaker promotions and bonuses.
- • Sign-up bonuses
- • Enhanced odds offers
- • Risk-free bets
Positive EV vs Arbitrage Betting
| Aspect | Positive EV | Arbitrage |
|---|---|---|
| Risk Level | Medium (long-term edge) | Low (guaranteed profit) |
| Profit Per Bet | Variable (can lose individual bets) | Fixed (1-5% guaranteed) |
| Capital Required | Lower (single bets) | Higher (multiple bets) |
| Frequency | More opportunities | Rare opportunities |
| Skill Required | Higher (analysis needed) | Lower (calculation only) |
Bankroll Management for EV Betting
Kelly Criterion
The Kelly Criterion helps determine the optimal bet size based on your edge and bankroll:
Bet Size = (bp - q) / bWhere: b = decimal odds - 1, p = probability of winning, q = probability of losing
Conservative Approach:
Use 25-50% of Kelly Criterion to reduce risk while maintaining positive EV
Best Sports for Positive EV Betting
Esports
High volatility, frequent line movements, and less efficient markets create EV opportunities
Tennis
Individual sport with clear outcomes and good data availability for analysis
Basketball
High-scoring games with many betting markets and statistical opportunities
Common EV Betting Mistakes
Overestimating Your Edge
Be conservative in your probability assessments. Overconfidence leads to losses.
Poor Bankroll Management
Betting too much on individual bets can wipe out your bankroll despite having positive EV.
Chasing Losses
Don't increase bet sizes after losses. Stick to your EV-based strategy.
Ignoring Sample Size
Positive EV betting requires patience. Short-term results can be misleading.
Getting Started with Oddsentry
Ready to start finding positive EV opportunities? Oddsentry provides real-time EV analysis and betting opportunities across multiple esports bookmakers.